Missouri State
Missouri State University · 2025 · Conference USA
Missouri State went 7-6 and was ranked 85th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 66th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by an 111th-ranked defense. They passed the ball on 57% of offensive plays with a 91st-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 43% of plays with an 111th-ranked rushing attack.
Quadrant record
By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.
Projected wins
Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.
The resume
Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).
| Wk | Opponent | Conf | Opp rank | Result | Exp. margin | Win prob | GameScore | Quad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ USC | Big Ten | #17 | L 13–73 | -29.9 | 0% | -32.2 | Q1 |
| 2 | @ Marshall | Sun Belt | #96 | W 21–20 | -5.6 | 100% | 5.0 | Q3 |
| 3 | vs SMU | ACC | #31 | L 10–28 | -18.2 | 0% | -8.4 | Q2 |
| 4 | vs UT Martin | OVC-Big South | — | W 42–10 | +20.1 | 100% | 15.5 | Q4 |
| 5 | vs Western Kentucky | Conference USA | #68 | L 22–27 | -0.4 | 0% | -14.3 | Q4 |
| 7 | @ Middle Tennessee | Conference USA | #129 | W 22–20 | +8.4 | 100% | -13.8 | Q4 |
| 9 | @ New Mexico State | Conference USA | #119 | W 24–17 | +3.0 | 100% | -11.6 | Q4 |
| 10 | vs FIU | Conference USA | #89 | W 28–21 | +5.9 | 100% | -8.3 | Q4 |
| 11 | @ Liberty | Conference USA | #115 | W 21–17 | -1.4 | 100% | -2.0 | Q4 |
| 12 | vs UTEP | Conference USA | #132 | W 38–24 | +13.3 | 100% | -0.2 | Q4 |
| 13 | @ Kennesaw State | Conference USA | #61 | L 34–41 | -5.1 | 0% | -10.9 | Q4 |
| 14 | vs Louisiana Tech | Conference USA | #75 | L 30–42 | -2.0 | 0% | -18.8 | Q4 |
| Postseason | ||||||||
| — | vs Arkansas State | Sun Belt | #90 | L 28–34 | +2.5 | 0% | -17.1 | Q4 |
13 played · 7-6. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.
The season
The model’s read on Missouri State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.
Passing & rushing
Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.
Their offense vs. what their defense allows.
Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.
What kind of team is this?
Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.
Field position 90th · Finishing 59th
Field position 94th · Finishing 112th
2.10 points per drive on offense, 2.30 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 29.
Play-calling & efficiency
What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.
| Quarter (att.) | Pass / rush | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1(203) | 57% / 43% | 41% | 6.0 |
| Q2(234) | 64% / 36% | 41% | 6.4 |
| Q3(193) | 56% / 44% | 39% | 7.0 |
| Q4(202) | 50% / 50% | 42% | 6.8 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(191) | 10.1 | 47% | 8.0 |
| 2nd(152) | 9.7 | 42% | 6.8 |
| 3rd(127) | 9.2 | 38% | 8.2 |
| 4th(6) | 3.0 | 67% | 8.7 |
| All (476) | — | 43% | 7.7 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(194) | 9.9 | 39% | 5.2 |
| 2nd(115) | 7.4 | 33% | 4.9 |
| 3rd(42) | 8.6 | 40% | 4.6 |
| 4th(5) | 2.8 | 80% | 2.6 |
| All (356) | — | 38% | 5.0 |
Missouri State, all games.